3 Tech Predictions That Will Inadvertently Impact Paid Media in 2024

A Chalk Outline For X

Twitter died in 2023. But in 2024, X is going to die. Advertising on X is already at a low-point. Analysts say monthly ad revenue has declined at least 55% year-over-year each month since Musk bought the company in October 2022. Combine X's new "free speech" policies and the upcoming election and you have a platform ripe for bot & spam traffic - leaving any reputable brand hesitant to invest ad dollars. The decline in content will also stall paid subscriptions, leaving Elon to strain under the weight of his $1.2 billion dollar annual debt load.

With the exception of huge brands, paid media folks have mostly avoided Twitter due to its relatively exorbitant costs. However, as the budgets of those huge brands are reallocated to other channels, expect a significant wave in CPMs.

The AI Craze Will Calm

AI was undoubtedly the storyline of 2023. But in 2024, AI fervor will level off until LLM's mature past regurgitating what’s already online and start developing new thought.

Sure big tech will keep injecting (mostly unhelpful) AI into their products. But I suspect they will also quietly roll some products back out as we find an AI equilibrium for now.

A Ceasefire For The Streaming Wars

The streaming wars are over and most sides lost. Last year the world's largest entertainment companies lost more than $5 billion dollars trying to compete with Netflix. And Wall Street isn't here for it. Re-consolidation of streaming media is inevitable.

According to Rich Greenfield, an analyst at LightShed Partners:

TV advertising is falling far short, cord-cutting is continuing to accelerate, sports costs are going up and the movie business is not performing,” he said. “Everything is going wrong that can go wrong. The only thing [the companies] know how to do to survive is try to merge and cut costs.

Although this will weigh heavy on investors, advertisers don't mind the idea of fewer ad networks to manage.